By now, most of the world has heard about the upcoming presidential election in the United States. Hundreds of broadcasting channels continue to focus on the two controversial candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, providing different opinions, stories, and data on the race that makes it hard to know who to believe. Some programs portray Vice President Harris as an incompetent, weak leader, while others say she’s a godsend, empowering women and people of color to reach their full potential. On the other hand, certain news sources display former President Trump as a lying, manipulative future dictator determined to turn America into an authoritative country, while others firmly believe that he will “Make America Great Again” by placing the wellbeing of the country first. How do we know who to believe?
It’s expected that a native-born European might not pay much attention to this crucial election race as they think the outcome won’t affect them, but it’s indisputable that whichever candidate wins will, in fact, play a crucial part in Europe’s economic and social trajectory for the next 4 years. Additionally, many of us at ASB have family or friends who live in the United States, which makes it important for us to know how their lives will be affected.
Firstly, let’s focus on Trump. One of the problems Europe could face if he wins the election would be the decision to waver full support for NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization). The former president has made it clear that he questions the value of this organization, and if he did make the decision to exit NATO, Europe might not have the adequate military power and nuclear weapons to be able to defend the continent (Daniels). Additionally, many European citizens doubt his ability to negotiate a long lasting, effective deal with Putin to stop the war with Ukraine, one that would benefit both Europe and the US. They are also worried that he would hesitate to continue to supply Ukraine with weapons, which could lead to Russian military action that could affect other European countries. Lastly, throughout his presidential campaign, Trump has made clear his plans to renew tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos, which would be grim for Europe’s economy. (Tariffs are taxes imposed by a government on imports or exports) (Wikipedia). On the other hand, Trump would likely push for less US involvement with the continent, which could lead to greater cooperation between European countries in addition to expanded defense and military abilities (an abrupt, if necessary, shift).
Now, if Harris wins the election, a number of things could happen. Primarily, she has made it clear that she will continue to support Ukraine like Biden has, which corresponds to her belief in the importance of NATO. Europeans, in turn, would feel more secure about their safety. In general, she seeks collaboration between the US and Europe, focusing on global issues such as climate change and national security. However, if she were to be elected into office, it is probable that she would push for more commitment to solve said issues, in turn leading to more spending, forcing Europe to allocate more money that they might be reluctant to disburse. Biden also failed to include European carmakers in negotiations concerning the Inflation Reduction Act’s support for electric vehicles, and she will likely not change this approach. The significance of this is that the IRA offers substantial tax credits for electric vehicles, but only if they meet strict requirements. For example, a large portion of the vehicle must be produced in North America, meaning European automakers like BMW, Volkswagen, and Mercedes cannot benefit from the IRA. Lastly, it is known that she wants European cooperation to try to dull China’s large economic and foreign policies, which might force Europeans into a politically tense situation with China. This, she has in common with Trump, as they are both trying to stop China from becoming a greater global power.
At the Democratic National Convention, Kamala Harris said this was “the most important election in our lives”, and it’s clear that the “our” includes Europeans as well. Regardless of who wins, cooperation between Europe and the States will continue to be tedious, as the US will continue to pressure Europe to do more and spend more on issues like climate change and military defense. America is also in the middle of shifting its focus to Asia in an effort to rebalance international relations, therefore moving its attention away from Europe. Because of this, Europe needs to do a number of things: firstly, focus on greater military collaboration between countries, in order to build up their front as a continent. European countries need to rid themselves of their label as “the free rider continent”, or, in other words, their reputation for their dependency in security and defense on the US. They also might need to consider strengthening the Euro as a global reserve currency to try and give themselves a greater part in international capital markets, which could result in more economic freedom and independence. And the one thing Europe needs the most is a stable, beneficiary trade agreement with the US, the likelihood of which would all depend on who wins the upcoming 2024 presidential race. America is not the only country whose future depends on this election. So, who would you choose?
Bibliography:
Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump. What do the polls tell us? The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/21/us/politics/kamala-harris-trump-polls.html.
Daniels, Laura von, and Steven Blockmans. “Why the U.S. Presidential Election Matters For Europe.” Council on Foreign Relations, Council on Foreign Relations, 3 Sept. 2024, www.cfr.org/councilofcouncils/global-memos/why-us-presidential-election-matters-europ
Rocholl, Jörg. “How Europe Should React to the US Presidential Elections.” POLITICO, POLITICO, 5 Sept. 2024, www.politico.eu/article/europe-us-presidential-elections-2024-joe-biden-donald-trump/.
James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski. “Our First Thoughts on the US Election and the Potential Impact on Europe and Markets.” ING Think, ING Think, 11 Apr. 2024, think.ing.com/articles/us-election-potential-impact-on-europe-and-markets/.